The Third Plan!

As the world’s concerns about Iran’s nuclear program are on the rise, there is an important question to be answered. Is Iran truly looking for nuclear technology for peaceful purposes, like generating electricity, or the ultimate goal behind this mysterious program is nothing but the good old nuclear bomb, as the world suspects? And if they really are moving toward becoming a nuclear state, should the international community, lead by the United States, stop them at any cost, or it is better to let them have the bomb under certain conditions?

The irritating point about the media coverage of the subject so far, has been the blatant destitute of any collateral thinking. Analyzing the possibilities within a rigid framework, overlooking the likelihood of the existence of a third or even more answers to the same question and simply repeating the worn-out talking points again and again, is media’s chronic disease that although is not uniquely confined to this particular case but has been vividly manifested here, to say the least.

As an example for other conceivable scenarios, what if Iranians are not looking for the peaceful nuclear technology, as one may suspect, but they are not looking for the bomb either? What if they are perfectly aware that the geopolitics of the region would not give them the time they need, which according to the experts would be something between five to ten years, but they also know that the world and especially United States are simply not in the position to dictate something quite drastic like the full abandonment of the plan? What if the pragmatic leaders of Iran, which is one thing they have repeatedly proven to be, are just using the whole nuclear issue as a bully for the international community to win the best deal possible, in return to stop the entire process or to reduce it to a fairly less-ambitious program?

Let’s explore first, why the situation of Iran is different and a nuclear Iran is downright out of the question and then see why the world is simply not in a position to impose the consensus to Iran.

First of all, becoming a nuclear state, if not impossible, is much more complicated for Iran than most people may think it would be. There is a missing link in the common analysis that draws parallel between Iran’s case and those of recently-joint, unwelcome new members of the nuclear club, namely North Korea, India and Pakistan.

In the case of India, due to the enormous geopolitical and economical importance of the country in the international scene, it was almost impossible to prevent her from becoming a nuclear state where as in the case of Iran, though by no mean easy, it would be perfectly within the reach of the Security Council’s permanent members. The case of Pakistan is also undeniably linked to the case of India to the extent that analyzing it outside of this context would be ridiculously absurd. In fact, the world’s intentional disregard to Pakistan nuclear program was a well-directed policy, addressing the incapability of the international community to deter India from developing nuclear capability. In other word, a nuclear Pakistan was a necessity for the region’s balance of power to be restored.

For obvious reasons, not only this argument is not valid in the case of Iran, a nuclear Iran would severely unbalance the power structure of the region hence forces the Security Council to do everything in its disposal to prevent the scenario from happening.

The case of North Korea is an exceptionally odd one, makes it completely incomparable to the one of Iran’s. As much as the strange isolation of North Korea, makes any sort of sanctions ineffective, the vibrant economical ties of Iran to the outside world can easily bring Iran to its knees. The majority of Iran’s revenue comes from exporting oil and apart from United States and Israel, Iran has trading ties with almost the rest of the world which makes Iran rather vulnerable and the sanctions quite effective in this case. Not to mention that Iran has no similarity with the information-black hole called North Korea. Where the world has almost no clue about what’s going on inside that country, it is fairly easy to gather any sort of information about Iran hence prevent the formation of the frightening mysterious vacuum of information like the one that surrounds North Korea.

Considering the fact that Iran’s leadership, has managed to successfully overcome the myriad of crisis it has been faced with so far, it is rather naïve to underestimate their vision to foresee this obvious fact that the world, not only united stated, Europe and Israel but also the Arab leaders of the region, would simply not tolerate a Shiite, non-arab nuclear Iran in the middle east.

It is also unrealistic if one wants to consider that a power plant like the one in Boushehr, with capacity of 1000 MW (almost half of Karoon’s hydraulic power plant),in a country so rich in oil and natural gas reserves, is something that any regime would be ready to pay such a hefty price for. Maybe that is the reason why Iran always finds an excuse to interrupt the negotiations, whenever it is getting close to a deal. In fact, it seems that Iran is absolutely not looking for a way to continue the peaceful nuclear activity, or to open up the nuclear power plant or even to keep up enriching uranium in her soil. So what is the real plan?

It seems that what Iran is really looking for, is to persuade the world that she is dangerous enough to be a threat to the international community, and specially to Israel, and also powerful enough to make any sort of confrontational attempt, a massively expensive adventure. Using the scary image, they could negotiate their way to receive a considerable package of incentives, in a situation where bribing Iran would be the most rational as well as economical option and even in the best case scenario, the only option available for United States and the allies. For that matter, Iran has a lot of strong cards to play with.

Iran’s elaborate ties to the outside world, though an Achilles foot in one way; is a week point for the international community as well. Extensive investments of Europeans and Asians in Iran’s industries as well as in energy sector, creates a considerably complicated dilemma that cannot be solved without an enormous price to be paid. The sanctions imposed by United States which keeps the American companies out of the competition, creates such a delicious feast for the Europeans, Chinese, Korean and even Malaysians that would make the sanction as painful for them as it would be for Iran. Not to forget that Russia, alongside with China, has a profitable monopoly over Iran’s military deals that forces Kremlin to think twice before agreeing to any sort of sanction that could deprive the Russian’s desperately-in-need-of-cash military industry from Iran’s competitor-less! market.

Another strong card in the hand of Iran’s leadership is the fact the country is supplying a good portion of the worlds, and especially India and china’s need to crude oil and natural gas. Replacing this gigantic supplier of energy not only seems to be impossible, the process on the oil prices hence on the world’s economy can be downright disastrous and it the present situation where another major producer, Iraq, is unlikely to be able to reclaim its position in the oil market anytime soon, it’s highly unlikely if India and China with such oil-thirsty economies, would fall for such a risky decision that could bring catastrophic outcomes to their vulnerable economies.

Next card would be Iran’s recently-boosted influence on the region, in Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon and Palestine. Considering the direct involvement of America as well as England in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the proximity of Lebanon and Gaza to Israel, any sort of stimulation introduced by Iran or the groups supported by Iran can lead to dangerous situations that could literally endanger lives of American and British soldiers as well as Israeli’s soldiers and civilians.

Another stronghold of Iran is the calculatedly widely-distributed and well-protected nuclear sites throughout a vast country that turns any military plan into an extremely complicated one, certainly far from a safe and causality-proof mission and totally different to Israel’s spotless air strike on heavily-concentrated and unwisely-unprotected nuclear facilities of Saddam, near Baghdad in 1981.

Last card, but absolutely not least is the fact that Iran’s leadership, as well as almost anybody else in the politics, are perfectly aware of the badly-reduced, overstretched US’s military power. In other word, although America always states that the military option is on the table; both sides know that it’s not really an option to be considered.

Add to this, Iran’s military power. Although obviously not as strong as to be able to withstand United States army, strong enough to inflict serious damages to US’s interests in the region.

The above-mentioned analogy, justifies Iran’s leaders sharp and seemingly irrational rhetoric with regard to Israel, their irritating disobedient from the security council’s resolutions and their obvious unwillingness toward any political solution, trying to facilitate Iran’s access to peaceful nuclear technology. Otherwise, how anyone could possibly explain Iran’s leaders demagoguery, attracting so much attention to Iran’s hostility toward Israel and defiance to United States, if what they really need is a calm, attention-free environment where they can pursue a secret military plan under the cover of a civilian reactor?

Iran is aware that the world is absolutely determined to prevent her from becoming a nuclear state. They know that Israel already has an elaborate plan and the military capability as well, to finish the job if the situation appears to be critical and they will consider to do it alone if the rest of the world shies away, but Iran also knows that such procedure would be massively costly for the international community. In fact, expensive enough to justify paying a massive bribe to Iran just to avoid the confrontation. The bribe could be an amalgam of subjects; from lifting the sanctions to the securing the future of the regime from any possible threat from the outsides. The intentional efforts of Iran’s rulers to cultivate the Iran-o-phobia among western nations as well as Israel, is only logically explainable if it is to be a well-tailored political gesture to raise the final price of the deal to the highest level possible. A quite common scene in every haggle where one side is a Middle Easterner!

Considering the seemingly unsolvable catastrophe of Iraq, it would not be surprising if a defying, rebellious Iran would give up her nuclear ambitions right before US’s presidential election and all of a sudden justifies the whole Neo-Cons’s pre-emptive adventure in the Middle East.

And on the other side, since Iran’s leaders has repeatedly announced that they are not pursing a military plan and a nuclear war head is absolutely not what they are looking for, there would not be any need for the gesture to be explained or justified for Iran’s public.

After all, if it happens it wouldn’t be the first time, Islamic republic of Iran helping republicans win an election.